My LittleTrades
As you may have noticed, I haven't been updating this blog as religiously as I once did. This is largely because I've been working on a project with an equal fervor.

This is something that I developed about a year ago, and I just recently picked it up, brushed it off, and started working on it again. It's a stock prediction system, and it works like this:

It's very difficult to say how much a stock is going to move over a week or a month. Even when you are trying to guess how much a stock will move in a couple of days, it's difficult to accurately predict. However, if you look at the stock movement over a single day, there are a lot of them that will rise and fall as much as two or three percent regularly. If you had a way of knowing how high a stock was likely to rise, and how low it would fall, you could make one or two percent in a single day.

Why should a single percent be worth the risk? Because, if you can verifiably make 1% every day, over the 20 days in a trading month, you will make a 20% increase over one month. This means that, if you invest $5,000, and only make 1% per month, you end up with $6,000 at the end of the month. At the end of the second month, you would have $7,200. And so on.

So, by looking for regular, daily fluctuations in a stock rather than the overall movement of the stock, you could make 1% a day, which could make even a modest investment turn into a profitable venture (notice, most day traders start out with about $25,000 for trading. This system can work with investments as modest as $1,000).

But can we make those guesses? Can we know how high and how low a stock will trade on a given day? That's the crux of the matter, and that's what I've spent about three months working on.

I've developed a website that takes historical data for every single symbol in the NASDAQ, NYSE, and AMEX markets, evaluates them for trend, average delta (high to low), and other factors, then creates a list of the "best bets" for a given day. So, if you go to this website, it will tell you exactly where to buy and sell stocks to make that 1%.

And I don't take the easy way out either. Each recommendation is evaluated after the day is done, to see if it was successful or not, and the main page of the website tells how many made money, and how many lost. Right now, I'm hovering at about a 35-50% accuracy rating, and I'm working on that. But if you think about it, out of 7,700 stocks, I made 35% of my predictions accurately. When you consider only the "best bets" the numbers get exponentially better.

Anyway, once I get up enough money, I'm going to start putting it into this project. For now, though, I'm just playing on paper. I'm doing pretty well on paper, though.

For now, this website is provided for free. If I figure that there's a whole lot of people interested in it, I may require paid membership (to feed my trading habit).

If you're interested in seeing it in action, it's at http://www.LittleTrades.com


stock,
day-trade

- posted by BrandG @ 4:13 AM